Cook Political Report shifts North Carolina toward Harris

The nonpartisan group Cook Political Group shifted North Carolina’s presidential race to “toss up” from “lean Republican” as Vice President Harris narrows the gap with former President Trump.

“Despite the optimism and hype, [President] Biden was never able to keep this race [in North Carolina] close. By the time he dropped out of the race in late July, the president was trailing Trump by almost seven points,” Cook Editor-In-Chief Amy Walter wrote in an analysis Tuesday. “Today, however, the Tar Heel State looks more competitive than ever.”

Pointing to polling averages from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, Walter wrote Harris and Trump are in a dead heat at about 45.7 percent support each.

She noted that Trump has not lost political ground since President Biden dropped out last month, but the change comes from Harris's improvement in the president’s vote share by 7 points. On July 21 — the day Biden dropped out of the race — Trump led him in FiveThirtyEight’s average with 45.6 percent support to Biden's 38.7 percent, per the analysis.

“In other words, the race is tightening, not because Harris is cutting into Trump’s vote, but because Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are coming home,” Walter wrote.

The shift is the latest sign of good news for Harris in North Carolina, which Biden notably did not win in 2020.

Last week, Sabato's Crystal Ball, a leading election forecaster, said it also moved North Carolina from a "leans Republican" column to a "toss-up" but said they were skeptical the Tar Heel State could turn blue for Harris.

A polling index by Decision Desk HQ and The Hill shows that Harris has a 1.1 percentage point lead over Trump in North Carolina.

A survey released last week found Harris is also faring well against Trump when it comes to Hispanic voters in the Tar Heel State. A TelevisaUnivision Consumer Strategy & Insights/Media Predict poll, first obtained by The Hill, found Harris with 56 percent support from likely Hispanic voters in North Carolina, compared to Trump’s 34 percent.

Since replacing Biden atop the Democratic presidential ticket last month, Harris has seen a surge in support, posing a threat to the healthy lead Trump once held over the president nationally and in swing states.

Some political strategists and some Democrats, however, have warned it is too early to make conclusions about the November election and that the momentum for Harris could slow down in the coming two months.